Modelling threats from land use change to coral reefs in Mesoamerica

Changes in land cover such as removal of forests or change in agricultural practices can result in increased flows of sediment and pollutants into rivers. When sediment and pollutants are transported to the sea, coral reefs can be damaged, but these impacts are not usually considered in land use planning. The International Coral Reef Action Network Mesoamerican Reef Alliance (ICRAN-MAR) initiative seeks to minimize these impacts to the Mesoamerican Reef, through capacity building, development of sustainable business practices and building partnerships with the private sector.

Within this initiative, UNEP-WCMC has worked with the World Resources Institute (WRI) on integrating models of land use change, hydrology and oceanography. Potential future land use change under different GEO scenarios has been modelled using CLUE-S. Using these outputs to drive the N-SPECT model, WRI has modelled relative change in sediment transport, and is working with the University of Miami on an ocean transport model. The three models together illustrate the impacts of land use on pollutant and sediment delivery to coral reefs. The results help to inform work with the agricultural sector on improved land management practices, led by WWF Centroamerica.

A technical report on Land use change modelling for three scenarios for the MAR region is available. A detailed inventory of spatial data for Belize was released in December 2005, and offers a useful resource for any geographic analysis in that country. The inventory is available in Microsoft Excel format via the Biodiversity & Environmental Data System (BERDS).

In August 2006, a workshop was held at Galen University in San Ignacio, Belize on Watershed management, land cover change analysis, and modelling of land-based sources of pollution and sediment discharge to the MAR. The workshop was divided into a Policy Session and a Technical (training) Session, aiming to inform regional participants about the land use modelling results, and to train regional GIS experts in the use of the models. The Proceedings are available in English and Spanish, and the presentations are available in the original languages.

Download the English and Spanish versions of the Proceedings (417 Kb)

On December 12 2006, at an event in Belize City, WRI will launch a data CD presenting the results of this analysis and the implications for agricultural management practices in the MAR region will be presented. The project summary reports and maps will be available at http://reefsatrisk.wri.org and http://www.icranmar.org. The GIS data are available via the SERVIR web site at http://servir.nasa.cathalac.org or http://servir.nsstc.nasa.gov.

A study released in October 2006 (Our Precious Coasts) emphasises the importance of this work, indicating that sedimentation and pollutants reduce the ability of coral reefs to recover from climate-related bleaching events.

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This website was made possible through support provided by the office of Guatemala-Central American Programs, Latin America and Caribbean Bureau, U.S. Agency for International Development, under the terms of Grant No.596-G-00-03-00215-00. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development or of UNEP