Our analyses show significant differences between predictions from different models, with predicted changes in range size by 2030 differing in both magnitude and direction (e.g. from 92 loss to 322 gain). We explain differences with reference to two characteristics of the modelling techniques: data input requirements (presence/absence vs. presence-only approaches) and assumptions made by each algorithm when extrapolating beyond the range of data used to build the model. The effects of these factors should be carefully considered when using this modelling approach to predict species ranges. Main conclusions We highlight an important source of uncertainty in assessments of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and emphasize that model predictions should be interpreted in policy-guiding applications along with a full appreciation of uncertainty.
Resource Type: Journal PapersUNEP-WCMC produces regular outputs of net trade in wild-collected fauna and flora listed on CITES Appendix II as part of the CITES Review of Significant Trade process.
For the most recent Animals and Plants Committee meetings (AC25 and PC19), UNEP-WCMC also produced Reviews of Significant Trade for the species selected for review following CoP14.
Resource Type: ReportsDatasets Available from UNEP-WCMC: Excluding WDPA
Access to UNEP-WCMC datasets is provided on the understanding that you read and consent to be bound by the Terms and Conditions attached. For the purposes of this Agreement the “Data” comprise any of the spatial data and associated attribute data downloadable from the UNEP-WCMC website, excluding the World Database on Protected Areas.
This dataset provides spatial representation for the 234 “Data Sheet Sites” in the Centres of Plant Diversity (Davis et al. 1994-1997). In addition to the 234 priority sites selected for Data Sheet Site treatment, the Centres of Plant Diversity volumes recognize a number of additional sites in the Regional Summaries, but these are not included here. Theoretically, based on spatial information provided for some non-Data Sheet Sites in the CPD volumes (or even just the name of the sites in many cases), it would be possible to map many non-Data Sheet Sites. However, it would be difficult to do so consistently, and, furthermore, only the Data Sheet Sites are based on actual criteria. Specifically, to qualify for “Data Sheet” treatment in the volumes, mainland sites must have >1000 vascular plants, of which at least 100 are endemic to the site or to the phytogeographical region in which the site occurs; island floras must contain at least 50 endemic species or at least 10% of the flora must be endemic.
Resource Type: Spatial Data / Maps
Datasets Available from UNEP-WCMC: Excluding WDPA
Access to UNEP-WCMC datasets is provided on the understanding that you read and consent to be bound by the Terms and Conditions attached. For the purposes of this Agreement the “Data” comprise any of the spatial data and associated attribute data downloadable from the UNEP-WCMC website, excluding the World Database on Protected Areas.
This dataset was created show the original habitat types as they were before man's influence in the Indo-Malayan realm; change over time can be seen when used alongside the remaining natural habitats dataset. These datasets were produced alongside the publication "Protected Areas Systems Review of the Indo-Malayan Realm, Mackinnon, J. ed. 1997" in collaboration with The Asian Bureau for Conservation (ABC). This was produced to document the growth and changing character of the protected areas systems of the region over the ten year period 1986-1996. This was in the hope of aiding conservationists and development practioners to conserve Asia's rich biological resources upon which so many depend.
Resource Type: Spatial Data / MapsAssuming no radical transformation in human behavior, we can expect important changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2050. A considerable number of species extinctions will have taken place. Existing large blocks of tropical forest will be much reduced and fragmented, but temperate forests and some tropical forests will be stable or increasing in area, although the latter will be biotically impoverished. Marine ecosystems will be very different from today's, with few large marine predators, and freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced almost everywhere. These changes will not, in themselves, threaten the survival of humans as a species.
Resource Type: Journal PapersSustainability requires living within the regenerative capacity of the biosphere. In an attempt to measure the extent to which humanity satisfies this requirement, we use existing data to translate human demand on the environment into the area required for the production of food and other goods, together with the absorption of wastes. Our accounts indicate that human demand may well have exceeded the biosphere's regenerative capacity since the 1980s. According to this preliminary and exploratory assessment, humanity's load corresponded to 70% of the capacity of the global biosphere in 1961, and grew to 120% in 1999.
Resource Type: Journal PapersA table is provided of 122 bird species with restricted breeding distributions and for which Nepal may hold significant populations. Habitat threats and population changes are detailed for 33 species for which Nepal may be especially important. The vital importance of Nepal's forests to Nepal's avifauna is emphasised.
Resource Type: Journal PapersSmall local hunting communities in Siberia are very distant from any governmental control. Hunted waterbird species, including globally and regionally threatened species, rely for their well-being on the self regulation of remote hunting communities. Interviewed hunters showed a profound knowledge of Baikal Teal, its population status, and the causes of their past decline. Whether the knowledge is shared by other communities in the region and beyond in Northern Siberia needs verification.
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Our results show that any further infrastructure development will put the remaining European population of wild mountain reindeer at great risk, as further habitat fragmentation will make the remaining undisturbed patches too small for holding viable populations. We discuss the importance of controlling piecemeal development in infrastructure for conservation of wildlife and argue that minimizing infrastructure development is likely one of the largest challenges in wildlife conservation ahead.
Resource Type: Journal Papers©2013 UNEP All rights reserved