Story | Jan 2025
It is widely acknowledged that the world needs to move away from its dependence on fossil fuels. However, the shift to renewable sources is not without its own environmental and social impacts. Experts at UNEP-WCMC have co-authored a new working paper that examines the potential costs of the green energy transition.
As greenhouse gas emissions continue to warm the planet, we are seeing more and more extreme weather events – from a historic drought in the Amazon, to devastating floods in Spain. A recent report shows that these events reached dangerous new heights in 2024, leading to the deaths of thousands of people and the displacement of millions. Meanwhile, growing desertification and rising sea temperatures are causing irreversible damage to ecosystems and the species that inhabit them.
As the report notes, these events and phenomena highlight “the urgency of moving away from planet-heating fossil fuels as quickly as possible”. However, at present 80 per cent of global energy and transport systems are still powered by fossil fuels.
The need for an energy transition is clear, and is reflected in the rapid growth of renewable energy industries in recent years (between 2011 and 2023, renewable energy production capacity increased five-fold). However, moving from fossil fuels to these alternative sources is not straightforward; it requires a vast amount of natural resources in order to build and develop the infrastructure. Furthermore, there is a risk of exacerbating existing inequalities: with nearly three-quarters of the world’s population currently lacking access to electricity, we must ensure that people are not left behind.
The primary resource needed for the clean energy transition is minerals. There are 26 minerals – among them aluminium, copper, lithium and zinc – deemed critical to green energy technologies such as wind and solar power and electric vehicles. To reach the global goal of net zero by 2050, there would need to be a six-time increase in production of these minerals based on 2022 levels.
There are considerable implications for people and planet in this drive for increased production. These have been explored by experts at UNEP-WCMC as part of a new working paper published by UNEP: Critical Transitions: Circularity, equity, and responsibility in the quest for energy transition minerals.
As the working paper points out, there are significant hurdles to overcome to meet the unprecedented demand for critical minerals. Distribution of these resources is concentrated in specific regions around the world, and so supply can be vulnerable to trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, it takes around 16 years on average to fully establish a new mining operation, and this can be much longer as a result of the unpredictable factors outlined above. This raises doubts as to whether it will be feasible to meet demand within the tight timescales required.
Another issue is quality: as many of the world’s easily accessible mineral deposits have already been mined, average grades of minerals (that is, the amount of metal within the ore body) are declining. This means that more rock needs to be mined to produce the same amount of metal, which in turn means more energy is used.
Beyond these supply issues, there are pressing concerns about the wider environmental and social impacts of mining processes.
Some of these are direct and obvious. For example, clearing land for extraction and processing operations destroys wildlife habitats and displaces local communities. Similarly, the chemicals used in processing create air and water pollution which can harm the health of both animal and human populations.
There are other impacts which may take time to become fully apparent. For example, mining activities can lead to a greater risk of water scarcity in the long-term, which can contribute towards climate instability. As many of the world’s key mining centres already have high water stress levels, such as Chile (a key lithium producer), this can lead to increased aridity and can also be a source of conflict.
The social impacts of critical mineral activities are similarly complex. Often, countries that carry out extraction are not involved in the subsequent processing and manufacturing processes; this means that while they bear the brunt of the negative effects, they actually receive little benefit on an economic level. In addition to this, existing inequalities within local communities may be deepened further by mining activities; for example, the development of new mining projects often leads to a rise in gender-based violence. Women are also disproportionately affected by other impacts such as health issues and social disruption.
The report emphasizes that the impacts from the full mining cycle should be considered, including waste. Waste materials, known as tailings, require long-term management, yet this is rarely considered at the planning stage. A recent study found that nine per cent of 1,721 disclosed tailings storage facilities around the world are located within protected areas, which could pose serious risks for biodiversity in these regions.
There remain significant gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed if we are to fully understand the impacts of critical mineral extraction and processing. One specific example highlighted by the paper is deep sea mining – a controversial concept that is of great concern to many governments, scientists, non-governmental organizations and Indigenous groups. These groups have reservations about the impacts that the practice would have on deep-sea species and ecosystems, and the services they provide, and their ability to recover from such impacts.
It is no secret that mining is a driver of biodiversity loss around the world, but as this paper shows, the impacts of the industry are multifaceted. In meeting the demand for critical minerals, there is a very real risk that expanded operations will contribute towards climate instability – the very issue they are being extracted to solve –, deepen social divisions and even create conflict.
However, this transition also offers a significant opportunity. Through adopting responsible practices when extraction is deemed absolutely necessary, mining activities can support sustainable development and lift local communities out of poverty.
Dr Sebastian Dunnett, Senior Programme Officer, UNEP-WCMC
While the challenges may seem daunting, there are ways in which the impacts of the energy transition can be mitigated. There are three key approaches outlined in the working paper:
To help put these three approaches into practice, the paper suggests eight ‘Rs’ to be followed for an equitable green transition, such as reducing demand through innovation and efficiency, rethinking systems of consumption and retaining minerals in use.
It’s clear that the transition to green energy will be challenging; however, it’s important to keep in mind what’s at stake. Research by the Energy Transitions Commission found that even when conservatively estimating total resource requirements for the shift between now and 2050, the amount is still less than what is used within a single year of burning coal. As the authors of the paper note, the transition offers “a chance to rewrite the legacy of mining”. Through working collaboratively, harnessing new technology and establishing best practices, we can achieve a truly sustainable transition.
Read the Critical Transitions working paper here.
Main image: The Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System in California, one of the world’s largest solar thermal plants. There are around 15 critical minerals involved in producing solar energy. Photo by Dennis Schroeder / NREL.
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