A consortium of leading research institutes (IIASA, INPE, IPEA and UNEP-WCMC) joined forces to develop and apply a land use model that can support the development of policies that balance food and biofuel production and environmental protection.

The project team adapted the global economic model GLOBIOM to enable an assessment of how the possible impacts of public policy would impact emissions, agricultural production and biodiversity. The resulting GLOBIOM-Brazil model was validated using improved national data and its findings were taken into account by Brazilian decision-makers when developing the country's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC), submitted to UNFCCC COP-21 in Paris in 2015.

The overall message from the project results is the crucial importance for Brazil of implementing the Forest Code, which can bring about a major decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil. Modelled emissions from deforestation reach 110 MtCO2e in 2030, a 92 per cent decrease since 2000, and net forest emissions reach zero after 2030, due to forest regrowth and reduced deforestation.

At the same time as emissions are reduced, the model projects that croplands in Brazil will expand in the coming decades, under all modelled scenarios. These results indicate that environmental regulations (Forest Code and protected areas) will not prevent cropland expansion in Brazil, and so allows farmers to produce more food and biofuels.

However, although the project results show that the Forest Code provides strong protection in Amazonia, additional measures are needed to increase the protection of biodiversity in the Cerrado and the Caatinga biomes. The dry forests of the Caatinga are projected to lose 11 Mha from 2010 to 2050. By 2050, over 51 per cent of the natural Caatinga forests identified as important for biodiversity but not protected could be lost. When the loss of both mature forest and other natural lands are considered, the Cerrado could lose over 20 per cent of its unprotected areas of biodiversity importance.

Brazil faces major challenges in implementing the Forest Code, for example a high quality rural environmental cadastre is essential to make sure illegally deforested area is restored, and a monitoring system as powerful as the one in place for Amazonia needs to be set up for the whole country.

If Brazil succeeds in fully implementing the Forest Code, there will be multiple benefits, including biodiversity protection, emissions mitigation, and positive institution building.