We will be presenting our work on modelling to assess the impacts of land use change at the upcoming 2nd Global Land Project Open Science Meeting in Berlin, Germany from 19 to 21 March. The event brings together the international research community working on land change issues.
Arnout van Soesbergen will give a presentation on a novel framework that incorporates a land use model based on predictions of human population change, trends in commodity markets, and agricultural production. This framework can be used to develop scenarios of the impacts that human-induced landscape change may have on biodiversity and ecosystem services.
The project team has already applied the framework to Africa’s Great Lakes region to assess the potential impacts of predicted land use change and the variability of these impacts at the watershed scale to determine where the highest and lowest potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services might occur. The resulting analyses can be used to assess trade-offs between different land uses and make more informed choices when balancing conservation and development needs.
Rebecca Mant will make a presentation on land-use modelling to help assess the impact of land-use policies on biodiversity. This is part of a project which aims to help identify REDD+ policies that are economically efficient, socially fair, and can help meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).
Using the global economic and land use model (GLOBIOM) the project team is working to predict the impact of land-use change on biodiversity in Brazil and the Congo Basin by assessing how much natural land cover might be converted to productive usage such as agriculture, grazing or forestry. Additionally, the model is being used to assess habitat change within the ranges of threatened species.
Marieke Sassen, who has been working with Arnout von Soesbergen, will also be attending the meeting. If you would like to meet and discuss either of these approaches please attend the presentations or contact Arnout, Marieke or Rebecca.
Arnout van Soesbergen, Programme Officer, Science Programme - Agricultural development and biodiversity in the Great Lakes of Africa
Session No. 116: Landscape change and ecosystem service trade-offs: examples of spatially explicit assessments at different geographical scales (Chairs: Cornelia Hett, Peter Verburg - Theme 3)
Wednesday 19 March 2014, 16:00 - 17:30, Room 1'305 Arnout is scheduled to speak from 16:15 to 16:30
Rebecca Mant, Senior Programme Officer, Climate Change and Biodiversity Programme - Using results of an integrated land use model to assess the biodiversity impacts of REDD+ policies
Session No. 133: Reconciling environmental conservation and economic development in land-use planning: the value of integrated modelling (Chairs: Michael Obersteiner, Gilberto Camara, Valerie Kapos - Theme 3)
Wednesday 19 March 2014, 14:00 - 15:30, Room 0'311 Rebecca will be speaking from 14:00 to 14:15